Comparison between a determinsitic approach as proposed in ISO 13790 and the use stochastic profiles shows that the direct first order effect is on average rather small: the difference in total internal gains and its influence on the indoor temperature averages nearly zero and the standard deviations are small; however high peaks may occur. Also the difference in effect on the electric distribution grid voltage averages nearly zero; however here strong peaks occur which are of most importance for the grid stability. When taking in account the second order effect of heating by means of electricity; much larger differences are noticed: due to longer and more differentiated occupancy times; the average indoor temperature rises. Furthermore; the moment of heating differentiates compared to a determinsitic approach resulting in more but smaller peak demands towards the electricity grid.
Keywords: Stochastic modelling; Occupant behaviour; Grid load; Thermal building response
Proceedings of the 8th International Modelica Conference; March 20th-22nd; Technical Univeristy; Dresden; Germany
 D K Arasteh; J Hartmann; and M Rubin. Experimental verification of a model of heat transfer through windows. ASHRAE Transactions; 93(1):1425–1431; 1986.
 ASHRAE. 2009 ASHRAE Handbook: fundamentals. ASHRAE American Society of Heating Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers; Atlanta; 2009.
 R Baetens; R De Coninck; L Helsen; and D Saelens. The impact of domestic load profiles on the potential of building integrated photovoltaic systems in extremely low-energy dwellings. In Renewable Energy Research Conference; pages 3–14; Trondheim; June 7-8; 2010.
 R Baetens; R De Coninck; L Helsen; and D Saelens. The impact of the heat emission system on the grid-interaction of building integrated photovoltaics in low-energy dwellings. In 8th International Conference on System Simulation in Buildings; page P137; 2010.
 J Clarke. Energy simulation in building design. Butterworth-Heinemann; Oxford; 2nd ed. edition; 2001.
 S Darula; R Kittler; and C Gueymard. Reference luminous solar constant and solar luminance for illuminance calculations. Solar Energy; 79(5):559–565; November 2005. doi: 10.1016/j.solener.2005.01.004.
 Roel De Coninck; Ruben Baetens; Bart Verbruggen; Dirk Saelens; Johan Driesen; and Lieve Helsen. Modelling and simulation of a grid connected photovoltaic heat pump system with thermal energy storage using Modelica. In Philippe Andre; Stephane Bertagnolio; and Vincent Lemort; editors; proceedings of the 8th International Conference on System Simulation in Buildings; Liege; 2010.
 E U Finlayson; D K Arasteh; C Huizenga; M D Rubin; and M S Reilly. WINDOW 4.0: Documentation of calculation procedures; 1993.
 R A Furler; P Williams; and F K Kneubühl. Experimental and theoretical studies on the energy balance of windows - NEFF Project report 177.1; 1988.
 P Hoes; J Hensen; M Loomans; B Devries; and D Bourgeois. User behavior in whole building simulation. Energy and Buildings; 41(3):295–302; March 2009. doi: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2008.09.008.
 M Iqbal. An introduction to solar radiation. Academic Press Inc; New York - London; 1983.
 ISO/FDIS 13790. Energy performance of buildings - Calculation of energy use for space heating and cooling; volume 2007. 2008.
 A E Kenelly. Equivalence of triangles and stars in conducting networks. Electrical World and Engineer; 34:413–414; 1899.
 S A Klein. TRNSYS - A transient simulation program; 1973.
 A N Kolmogorov. Uber die analytischen Methoden in der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung. Mathematische Annalen; 104:415–458; 1931. doi: 10.1007/BF01457949.
 R J Liesen and C O Pedersen. An evaluation of inside surface heat balance models for cooling load calculations. ASHRAE Transactions; 103 Part 2:485–502; 1997.
 J V Paatero and P D Lund. A model for generating household electricity load profiles. International Journal of Energy Research; 30(5):273–290; April 2006. doi: 10.1002/er.1136.
 J Page; D Robinson; N Morel; and J Scartezzini. A generalised stochastic model for the simulation of occupant presence. Energy and Buildings; 40(2):83–98; 2008. doi: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2007.01.018.
 W Parys; D Saelens; and H Hens. Coupling of dynamic building simulation with stochastic modelling of occupant behavior in offices – a review-based integrated methodology. Journal of Building Performance Simulation; Accepted; 2010.
 I Richardson; M Thomson; and D Infield. A high-resolution domestic building occupancy model for energy demand simulations. Energy and Buildings; 40(8):1560–1566; 2008. doi: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2008.02.006.
 I Richardson; M Thomson; D Infield; and C Clifford. Domestic electricity use: A high-resolution energy demand model. Energy and Buildings; 42(10):1878–1887; October 2010. doi: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2010.05.023.
 I Richardson; M Thomson; D Infield; and A Delahunty. Domestic lighting: A high-resolution energy demand model. Energy and Buildings; 41(7):781–789; 2009. doi: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2009.02.010.
 D Robinson; N Campbell; W Gaiser; K Kabel; A Lemouel; N Morel; J Page; S Stankovic; and A Stone. SUNtool – A new modelling paradigm for simulating and optimising urban sustainability. Solar Energy; 81(9):1196–1211; September 2007. doi: 10.1016/j.solener.2007.06.002.
 A Skartveit and J A Olseth. Modelling slope irradiance at high latitudes. Solar Energy; 36:526–541; 1986. doi: 10.1016/0038-092X(86)90151-9.
 M Stokes; M Rylatt; and K Lomas. A simple model of domestic lighting demand. Energy and Buildings; 36(2):103–116; 2004. doi: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2003.10.007.
 P Strachan; G Kokogiannakis; and I Macdonald. History and development of validation with the ESP-r simulation program. Building and Environment; 43(4):601–609; April 2008. doi: 10.1016/j.buildenv.2006.06.025.
 C P Underwood and F W H Yik. Modelling methods for energy in buildings. Blackwell Publishing; 2004. doi: 10.1002/9780470758533.
 D Vanneste; P De Decker; and I Laureyssen. Woning en woonomgeving in België; 2001.
 B A Wichmann and I D Hilll. Generating good pseudorandom numbers. Computational Statistics & Data Analysis; 51(3):1614–1622; 2006. doi: 10.1016/j.csda.2006.05.019.
 J Widén and E Wäckelgå rd. A high-resolution stochastic model of domestic activity patterns and electricity demand. Applied Energy; 2009.