Article | Proceedings of the 56th Conference on Simulation and Modelling (SIMS 56), October, 7-9, 2015, Linköping University, Sweden | A Framework for Early and Approximate Uncertainty Quantification of Large System Simulation Models
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Title:
A Framework for Early and Approximate Uncertainty Quantification of Large System Simulation Models
Author:
Magnus Eek: Saab Aeronautics, Link√∂ping, Sweden Johan Karlén: Saab Aeronautics, Link√∂ping, Sweden Johan Ölvander: Machine Design, IEI, Link√∂ping University, Link√∂ping, Sweden
DOI:
10.3384/ecp1511991
Download:
Full text (pdf)
Year:
2015
Conference:
Proceedings of the 56th Conference on Simulation and Modelling (SIMS 56), October, 7-9, 2015, Linköping University, Sweden
Issue:
119
Article no.:
009
Pages:
91-104
No. of pages:
14
Publication type:
Abstract and Fulltext
Published:
2015-11-25
ISBN:
978-91-7685-900-1
Series:
Linköping Electronic Conference Proceedings
ISSN (print):
1650-3686
ISSN (online):
1650-3740
Publisher:
Linköping University Electronic Press, Linköpings universitet


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Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is vital to ensure credibility in simulation results and to justify model-based design decisions ‚Äď especially in early development phases when system level measurement data for traditional model validation purposes are scarce. Central UQ challenges in industrial applications are computational cost and availability of information and resources for uncertainty characterization. In an attempt to meet these challenges, this paper proposes a framework for early and approximate UQ intended for large simulation models of dynamical systems. A Modelica simulation model of an aircraft environmental control system including a liquid cooling circuit is used to evaluate the industrial applicability of the proposed framework.

Keywords: uncertainty quantification; aleatory uncertainty; epistemic uncertainty; model validation; aircraft system simulation models; Modelica

Proceedings of the 56th Conference on Simulation and Modelling (SIMS 56), October, 7-9, 2015, Linköping University, Sweden

Author:
Magnus Eek, Johan Karlén, Johan Ölvander
Title:
A Framework for Early and Approximate Uncertainty Quantification of Large System Simulation Models
DOI:
http://dx.doi.org/10.3384/ecp1511991
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Proceedings of the 56th Conference on Simulation and Modelling (SIMS 56), October, 7-9, 2015, Linköping University, Sweden

Author:
Magnus Eek, Johan Karlén, Johan Ölvander
Title:
A Framework for Early and Approximate Uncertainty Quantification of Large System Simulation Models
DOI:
http://dx.doi.org/10.3384/ecp1511991
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