Comparison between a determinsitic approach as proposed in ISO 13790 and the use stochastic profiles shows that the direct first order effect is on average rather small: the difference in total internal gains and its influence on the indoor temperature averages nearly zero and the standard deviations are small; however high peaks may occur. Also the difference in effect on the electric distribution grid voltage averages nearly zero; however here strong peaks occur which are of most importance for the grid stability. When taking in account the second order effect of heating by means of electricity; much larger differences are noticed: due to longer and more differentiated occupancy times; the average indoor temperature rises. Furthermore; the moment of heating differentiates compared to a determinsitic approach resulting in more but smaller peak demands towards the electricity grid.
Keywords: Stochastic modelling; Occupant behaviour; Grid load; Thermal building response
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