Article | World Renewable Energy Congress - Sweden; 8-13 May; 2011; Linköping; Sweden | Use of Stochastic Weather Generators in the Projection of Building Energy Demand in a Changing Climate

Title:
Use of Stochastic Weather Generators in the Projection of Building Energy Demand in a Changing Climate
Author:
David R. S. Williams: Centre for Environmental Strategy, Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, University of Surrey, UK Lucia Elghali: Parsons Brinckerhoff, Westbrook Mills, UK Russel C. Wheeler:
DOI:
10.3384/ecp110572056
Download:
Full text (pdf)
Year:
2011
Conference:
World Renewable Energy Congress - Sweden; 8-13 May; 2011; Linköping; Sweden
Issue:
057
Article no.:
041
Pages:
2056-2063
No. of pages:
8
Publication type:
Abstract and Fulltext
Published:
2011-11-03
ISBN:
978-91-7393-070-3
Series:
Linköping Electronic Conference Proceedings
ISSN (print):
1650-3686
ISSN (online):
1650-3740
Publisher:
Linköping University Electronic Press; Linköpings universitet


Compliance with building codes in many countries requires energy simulation of designs in local climate conditions. However; over a building‚Äôs lifespan; weather conditions may alter considerably due to climate change. There is a risk therefore that a future climate may alter lifecycle heating and cooling demands from those experienced today. The development of ‚Äėstochastic weather generators‚Äô provides an opportunity to produce synthetic weather data representative of a future climate. These models are calibrated against observed data; before being refitted to the climate change projections of global circulation models. The generator‚Äôs output is thousands of years of weather data for a particular future time period. Theoretically these outputs would be appropriate for building energy demand simulation; although analysis of such a high number of projected years would be impractical. This research has developed a method whereby a unique energy ‚Äúfingerprint‚ÄĚ is created for a building and used to estimate heating and cooling demands without the requirement for hours of computation. Energy demand estimates from the fingerprint have been crosschecked with dynamic simulation; indicating a high degree of correlation. The weather generator utilised in this study has been produced by the UK Climate Impact Programme (UKCIP) and is freely available on-line.

Keywords: Climate change; building energy demand

World Renewable Energy Congress - Sweden; 8-13 May; 2011; Linköping; Sweden

Author:
David R. S. Williams, Lucia Elghali, Russel C. Wheeler
Title:
Use of Stochastic Weather Generators in the Projection of Building Energy Demand in a Changing Climate
DOI:
10.3384/ecp110572056
References:
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World Renewable Energy Congress - Sweden; 8-13 May; 2011; Linköping; Sweden

Author:
David R. S. Williams, Lucia Elghali, Russel C. Wheeler
Title:
Use of Stochastic Weather Generators in the Projection of Building Energy Demand in a Changing Climate
DOI:
10.3384/ecp110572056
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