Article | 10th QMOD Conference. Quality Management and Organiqatinal Development. Our Dreams of Excellence; 18-20 June; 2007 in Helsingborg; Sweden | Probabilistic Variation Mode and Effect Analysis: A Case of an Air Engine Component

Title:
Probabilistic Variation Mode and Effect Analysis: A Case of an Air Engine Component
Author:
Pär Johannesson: Fraunhofer-Chalmers Research Centre for Industrial Mathematics, Sweden Thomas Svensson: SP Technical Research Institute of Sweden Leif Samuelsson: Volvo Aero Corporation, Sweden
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Year:
2007
Conference:
10th QMOD Conference. Quality Management and Organiqatinal Development. Our Dreams of Excellence; 18-20 June; 2007 in Helsingborg; Sweden
Issue:
026
Article no.:
006
No. of pages:
10
Publication type:
Abstract and Fulltext
Published:
2008-02-15
Series:
Linköping Electronic Conference Proceedings
ISSN (print):
1650-3686
ISSN (online):
1650-3740
Publisher:
Linköping University Electronic Press; Linköpings universitet


An important goal of engineering design is to get a reliable system; structure or component. One such well-established method is FMEA (Failure Mode and Effect Analysis); where the aim is to identify possible failure modes and evaluate their effect. A general design philosophy; within robust design; is to make designs that avoid failure modes as much as possible; see e.g. (Davis; 2006). Further; it is important that the design is robust against different sources of unavoidable variation. A general methodology called VMEA (Variation Mode and Effect Analysis) has been developed in order to deal with this problem; see (Johansson; et al.; 2006) and (Chakhunashvili; et al.; 2006). The VMEA is split into three different levels; 1) basic VMEA; in the early design stage; when we only have vague knowledge about the variation; and the goal is to compare different design concepts; 2) advanced VMEA; further in the design process when we can better judge the sources of variation; and 3) probabilistic VMEA; in the later design stages where we have more detailed information about the structure and the sources of variation; and the goal is to be able to asses the reliability.

This paper treats the third level; the probabilistic VMEA; and we suggest a simple model; also used in (Svensson; 1997); for assessing the total uncertainty in a fatigue life prediction; where we consider different sources of variation; as well as statistical uncertainties and model uncertainties.

Keywords: Probabilistic VMEA; fatigue life; life prediction; safety factor

10th QMOD Conference. Quality Management and Organiqatinal Development. Our Dreams of Excellence; 18-20 June; 2007 in Helsingborg; Sweden

Author:
Pär Johannesson, Thomas Svensson, Leif Samuelsson
Title:
Probabilistic Variation Mode and Effect Analysis: A Case of an Air Engine Component
References:

1. Casella; G.; Berger; R.; (2001); Statistical Inference. (2nd Edition); Duxbury; California.


2. Chakhunashvili; A.; Barone; S.; Johansson; P.; Bergman; B.; (2006); Robust product development using variation mode and effect analysis; Submitted for publication.


3. Davis; T.P.; (2006); Science; engineering; and statistics; Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry; Vol. 22; pp. 401‚Äď430.


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8. Johansson; P.; Chakhunashvili; A.; Barone; S.; Bergman; B.; (2006); Variation Mode and Effect Analysis: a Practical Tool for Quality Improvement; Quality and Reliability Engineering International; Vol. 22; pp. 865-876.


9. Lodeby; K.; (2000); Variability Analysis in Engineering Computational Process; Licentiate thesis in Engineering; Mathematical Statistics; Chalmers; Göteborg.


10. Melchers; R.; (1999); Structural Reliability Analysis and Prediction (2nd edition); John Wiley & Sons; Chichester; UK.


11. Pawitan; Y.; (2001); In All Likelihood: Statistical Modelling and Inference Using Likelihood; Cambridge UP; New York.


12. Svensson T.; (1997); Prediction uncertainties at variable amplitude fatigue; International Journal of Fatigue; Vol. 19; pp. S295-S302.

10th QMOD Conference. Quality Management and Organiqatinal Development. Our Dreams of Excellence; 18-20 June; 2007 in Helsingborg; Sweden

Author:
Pär Johannesson, Thomas Svensson, Leif Samuelsson
Title:
Probabilistic Variation Mode and Effect Analysis: A Case of an Air Engine Component
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